As many expected, the print runs for 2005 baseball fell to new lows in week 7. None of the eight cards issued at IPO sold even 1,000 cards, and three cards fell below the previous shortest print card. While this week’s IPO cards would likely sell similar levels, I expect some resurgence due to the presence of three rookies and the general mood that the low print runs in recent weeks forebodes for more stability in prices following IPO. The question, then, is whether week 7 was the bottom of print runs, or whether print runs will continue to decline. I would expect many of this week’s cards to sell within 100 cards either side of 1,000. While this would not create a short print, hopefully if overpurchasing does not occur the modest print runs can suggest a turnaround from the decline in prices seen so sharply in the 2002 and 2004 cards. But forecasting is difficult in eTopps, so expect several weeks of fluctuations as IPO purchasers continue to cautiously feel out their projections for the 2005 set.

Chien-Ming Wang (1,200 @ $6.00)

Wang made his major league debut last weekend, impressing Yankees fans who otherwise have had a demoralizing early season as Wang gave up only 2 earned runs in 7 innings. While Wang may return to AAA as injured players return to the rotation, Wang has had a successful minor league career and will likely stick with the majors within a year. In 2004, Wang was the Yankees’ minor league pitcher of the year, and also played in the Athens Olympics as part of the Chinese Taipei (Taiwan) team. Nonetheless, as a Yankee rookie, Wang is likely to sell near the 1,200 maximum, and I think $6.00 is a high price to maintain except for very low print runs. I suggest DO NOT buy this card at IPO.

Clint Barmes (2,000 @ $6.00)

The Rockies’ rookie shortstop hits for a high average and is capable of playing all middle field positions -- second base, shortstop, and center field. In his first 97 at bats, Barmes is batting just below 0.400, at 0.392, so he does not seem to need much transition for major league pitching. He also has 4 home runs and 3 stolen bases. Barmes will cool off, so the question is whether he will be a first month sensation or a rookie-of-the-year candidate. However, baseball rookies often fare mediocrely in eTopps as they compete with earlier cardboard releases, so only the very top rookie stars tend to excel;. I give this a weak DO NOT buy at IPO recommendation.

Grady Sizemore (1,200 @ $5.75)

Another rookie, the Indians’ outfielder got a call up to the majors in July 2004, and split the remainder of the season between AAA and the majors. Now starting for the Indians, he is batting about .250 and has hit 3 home runs and stolen 2 bases to date. At only 22, the Indians hope that Sizemore will develop into a threat for both power and speed. This is likely to be the lowest selling of the three rookie cards issued this week, and if Sizemore falls far below 1,000 cards sold the card could have a reasonable chance of holding IPO price. On the other hand, a return to the minors if Sizemore’s average doesn’t increase would put a chill on this card’s price. Again, a borderline call, but I recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO.

Kerry Wood (1,200 @ $5.50)

Kerry Wood started May with a return to the disabled list, clearly a concern for Cubs fans. His fifth eTopps card, this has a chance of being the shortest printed Wood card if it falls below the 1,056 printed in 2001, and I expect it to end up with 900 to 1,000 cards sold. Each of Wood’s eTopps cards from 2002 through 2004 are selling for $2.00 or less, so the 2005 card will need to fall notably below 1,000 to hold the IPO price. Even at 900 to 1,000, though, I would expect the card to erode slowly from the IPO price. Wood fans will certainly want the 2005 card as the superior alternative to any but the 2001 card, but otherwise I would recommend taking a pass and DO NOT buy this card at IPO.

Sammy Sosa (1,200 @ $5.00)

Sosa’s fortunes flipped 180 degrees in Chicago, going from the fan favorite to being booed at Wrigley. But he has a new chance in adding to the offensive power of the Orioles, joining Rafael Palmeiro as teammates with more than 500 home runs. Both will be chasing 600 home runs in 2005, though Palmeiro is a long shot for 600 and more likely to have a 3,000 hit milestone this year. This will by default be Sosa’s lowest eTopps print run card to date, with the previous low being the 2003 card with 1,425 issued. That card is selling for about $4.20 recently, so with a new uniform, lower print run, increased infamy following testifying at the Congressional steroid hearing, and chasing 600 home runs, the 2005 card will likely meet or exceed the $5.00 IPO price. Love him or hate him, Sosa will remain one of the most recognized players in the game, and if the Orioles knock off the Yankees and/or the Red Sox from the AL East lead, he will become a Baltimore favorite. I recommend BUY this card at IPO.

Troy Glaus (1,200 @ $5.00)

After a career with the team formerly known as the Anaheim Angels, the Angels were concerned about whether Glaus would be on the decline following shoulder surgery. But the Diamondbacks signed Glaus, and he has started quickly with 8 home runs as of May 5. But remaining healthy will remain a concern for the third-baseman. eTopps skipped Glaus in 2004, but his 2003 card sold 1,454 cards and hovers below $2.50 in recent prices. Glaus has the potential to sell below 900 cards, and only at 700 to 800 cards will the card hold IPO price. I don’t gamble on set short prints, so I recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO, but short print hunters may want to gamble.

Cincinnati Reds (1,200 @ $6.75)

The Reds finished 2004 with 69 wins, and would have to exceed the 2004 level with 76 wins in 2005 to achieve the eTopps performance bonus threshold. To date, they are last in the NL Central, and (thanks to Zameron’s message board projections) are only on pace to win 62 games. I recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO.

Oakland Athletics (1,200 @ $6.75)

Having lost Mulder and Hudson, the A’s are starting a new era. So far, they are falling below a 0.500 win/loss record, with an early season record of 13 wins and 15 losses. They will fight to win as many as they lose, which is the standard that eTopps set for a performance bonus. Zameron projects the A’s current pace to result in 78 wins, falling just short of the season bonus. I recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO.

This week’s best buy is Sammy Sosa.