Allen Iverson (1,000 @ $4.25)

A five-time All-Star game starter, Iverson continues to be a leading guard in the NBA. This season, Iverson is averaging 26 points-per game, comparable to his career average and ranking 4th in the NBA. Unfortunately, the 76ers are playing sub-0.500 ball even with Iverson playing at all-star caliber. This will be Iverson’s fourth eTopps’ card, and none have performed particularly well. His 2001 card sold a remarkable 4,368 cards, but the high print run leads to a relatively low recent 7-day average at about $2.50. The 2002 and 2003 cards sold 1,212 and 949, respectively, with the 2003 card having the higher 7-day average of about $3.30, and both have market caps within a few hundred dollars of $3,000. Assuming that the 2004 card holds a market cap of $3,000, it would need to sell 700 or fewer cards to maintain a $4.25 price. With recent print runs at that level in the past few weeks, fewer than 700 cards of a 5-time all-star is feasible, perhaps even likely, but I would rather spend the money on the 2003 card. I believe this card is a POOR buy at IPO.

Josh Smith (800 @ $4.50)

The Atlanta Hawks’ rookie forward has gotten an opportunity to start in recent games, and Josh Smith has played well, averaging more than 10 points per game in his first two games as a starter. That has earned Josh Smith 6th place in the most recent NBA.com rookie rankings, a notable rise for a 17th pick in the 2004 NBA draft straight out of high school. Josh Smith could play a key role in the Atlanta Hawks’ rebuilding, and the modest 800 print run maximum and $4.50 price make this a GOOD buy at IPO.

Atlanta Hawks (750 @ $6.50)

The 19 season win, 4 December win targets for the Atlanta Hawks look so tempting until one recalls that the Hawks have won only 2 games in the first two weeks of December, and 4 games so far all season. The 4 win, 17 loss record puts the Hawks on pace for a mere 16 wins. With a few breaks, and continued low monthly bonus targets, the Hawks may pick up a bonus point or two. Nonetheless, as eTopps releases 4 cards of teams with losing records, it is hard to get excited about these cards. I believe this is a POOR buy at IPO.

Chicago Bulls (750 @ $6.50)

The Chicago Bulls have several promising rookies, with Kirk Hinrich, Luol Deng, and Ben Gordon, but the youth movement is not yet resulting in wins. The Bulls have 4 wins, 15 losses to date, a pace to win only 17 games this season. That would fall short of the 21 game target that eTopps set for the performance bonus, and the Bulls are only half way to the 4 win target for December. Perhaps the Bulls’ rookies will improve and get a few extra wins, but the Bulls are years away from contending. If they reach the level, this card picturing several rookies may be an interesting nostalgia piece in a few years, but otherwise I think this is a POOR buy at IPO.

Golden State Warriors (750 @ $6.50)

Golden State is the only team issued at IPO this week that is currently on pace to meet its season reward point target. With a 7 win, 14 loss record to date, Golden State is on pace to win about 27 games, two more than the target of 25. Golden State also has 4 wins so far in December, needing just 2 more for the 6 win December bonus. While this is another basement-dwelling team, this card shows a bit more potential for some bonus points, earning a very WEAK buy recommendation.

Houston Rockets (800 @ $6.50)

Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming lead the Rockets, but so far not to a winning record. With 9 wins and 12 losses early in the season, the Rockets are on pace for 35 wins, much lower than the minimum of 46 wins that eTopps (and Rockets’ fans) expect for a reward point and a playoff spot. The Rockets have won 6 games in the first half of December, so they may be turning around their weak start, and need 3 more wins to meet the December threshold of 9 wins. Rockets fans may want to pick this card up, but otherwise this looks like a POOR buy at IPO to me.

In summary, my recommended best buy this week is Josh Smith. The low print runs are tempting, but overall this is a week where most of my money will be going to the secondary market through the CardTarget Market rather than etopps’ IPOs.