Below is just my opinion and analysis of this week’s IPO. They are offered only as opinion and to encourage discussion. Looking forward to your own opinions and comments.

Jason Elam (900 @ $4.00)

Elam becomes the 3rd kicker of the 2004 football set. Vinatieri was the first, debuting for $4.00 @ 1,250 and selling out. So far his card has held its own, remaining around the original price. Next came Vanderjagt with which eTopps decided to test the market for kickers and increased the price to $4.75 @ 1,250. The market did not respond well to this price increase and only 688 cards were sold. So for Elam, eTopps has decided to return to the $4 price tag and also slash the maximum print run by 350. I could understand the demand for a Vinatieri card as the guy is responsible for two Super Bowl victories. I could also rationalize a Vanderjagt card as he set a record for most consecutive field goals. But why exactly does Elam deserve a card? Because he plays in Denver where the thin air allows him to kick the ball far? That’s about the only thing I associate the guy with. He’s good, don’t get me wrong, but I wouldn’t necessarily want to own his card. Nevertheless, the 2 other kicker cards are both above IPO, one because of a few accumulators and the other because of its short print. They are also both valued at $5,000 market cap. I just don’t think that Elam is in the same ‘special’ category as the other two, and because of that remain skeptical about this card. The 900 maximum print run will induce people to buy that otherwise wouldn’t have. There is little risk because of this ceiling but also no room for reward. I would consider this card a safe buy at IPO.

Matt Hasselbeck (900 @ $6.50)

Normally I applaud eTopps for releasing player’s IPOs right when they’re at their hottest. Because of their good timing this season, they have profited from players such as Quentin Griffin and Lee Suggs; two cards whose value have fallen far below their previously hyped levels. But in this case, eTopps has decided to release a 3rd Hasselbeck card after arguably the worst game of his career. Hasselbeck threw 4 interceptions against the Arizona Cardinals and ruined a lot of people’s Seattle Seahawks team cards. In a year in which the Seahawks are supposed to reach the NFC Championship game, Hasselbeck currently has the lowest QB rating of his career. So then why, out of the 60 or so other possible cards, did eTopps decide that Hasselbeck needed another card? Good question. Hasselbeck’s previous two cards are valued at $30k with a print run of 237 and $5k with a print run of 3,000. Is there any room for a card with a similar market cap as the 2002 version but with 1/3 of the print run? Yes. The good thing about this card is that it will join Favre from last week as the SP of 2004 QBs. Additionally, it is a hell of a lot cheaper than his 2001 and has much more room for growth than his 2002. Regardless of Hasselbeck’s performance so far this year, I would consider this card a good buy at IPO.

San Diego Chargers Team Card (900 @ $6.50)

Target: 4.5 wins after week 8, 8.5 wins after regular season

Wk 1:  W 27-20
Wk 2:  L 34-28
Wk 3:  L 23-13
Wk 4:  W 38-17
Wk 5:  W 34-21
Wk 6:  L 21-20
Wk 7:  W 17-6
Wk 8:  vs. OAK
Wk 9:  vs. NO
Wk 10:  bye
Wk 11:  @ OAK
Wk 12:  @ KC
Wk 13:  vs. DEN
Wk 14:  vs. TB
Wk 15:  @ CLE
Wk 16:  @ IND
Wk 17:  vs. KC

If you had told me before the season started that the Chargers team card would have a 4.5 win target after week 8 I would have laughed and declared it the SP of the set. However, the Chargers have looked damn good so far this season. Brees is playing better than ever and somehow their defense is able to keep them in games. Their schedule looks pretty soft and they’re definitely not out of the playoff hunt yet. The interesting thing about this card is that most people will be deciding whether or not to order on Sunday. If the Chargers win, this card will sell out. If the Chargers lose, it will most likely sell in the 600-800 range. On Sunday you should be able to decide whether or not this card is a good or bad buy at IPO, so I’ll leave this one up to you.