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IPO Insight
eTopps convention overshadows IPOs in baseball week 17

By John Dicken (e-mail)

July 20, 2004


eTopps supports the community-initiated presence at the National Convention and the second community-driven eTopps Convention by issuing Cleveland-centric cards during the final week of IPOs for the baseball 2004 set. Perhaps the last three weeks have shown that eTopps gave up on its original plan for the 2004 baseball series: it eliminated many previously-named players and issued 5 All-Star caliber players the week of the All-Star game, issued 5 rookies last week after message board members complained about the lack of rookies in the set, and issued 4 Cleveland area players and a nearby Pittsburgh Pirates player during the week of the National Convention in Cleveland. While these latest cards may have generate little recognition or excitement by most eTopps participants, even at the lowest IPO prices since 2001, it is a worthy attempt to attract interest from new Cleveland-area fans attending the National Convention. The attempt may or may not work in attracting new members, but we should thank eTopps for encouraging the participating members who have worked so hard to promote its product at the National Convention.

Despite a lower average IPO price, the temporary success of team cards, and eTopps' shifts in player selection during the last three weeks of IPOs, the 2004 baseball series has disappointed many eToppers. Already, this set is in the lower half of performing sets, as shown in the rankings of all eTopps sets to date below, and is likely to sink further as performance bonus points for team cards and players are exhausted at the end of the season. I would expect the 2004 set to eventually settle between the baseball 2003 and 2002 sets, which have lost half to nearly two-thirds of their value since IPO.

RankeTopps set% change from IPO price (as of 7/20/04)
1Football 2000+603.5%
2Football 2001+468.3%
3Baseball 2001+374.7%
4Basketball 2001+116.5%
5Hockey 2001+79.1%
6Basketball 2003+56.8%
7Football 2003+45.5%
8Football Classics+43.3%
9Hockey 2003-7.3%
10Baseball 2004-23.1%
11England Football-24.8%
12Baseball Classics-30.4%
13NASCAR-37.0%
14eVent series-50.5%
15Basketball 2002-50.6%
16Baseball 2003-50.7%
17Hockey 2002-57.7%
18Football 2002-62.1%
19Baseball 2002-63.3%

On to this week's IPOs:

Casey Blake (2,500 @ $3.75)Casey Blake 2004 eTopps

The Indians' third baseman is in his sixth MLB season, but only his second as a starter. He currently has a .272 batting average, higher than his career average of .259, and with 16 home runs is likely on pace to exceed last season's career high of 17 home runs. eTopps set his performance bonus level so that he is approximately exactly on pace in all categories to date. The Casey Blake card is for Indians fans only. I recommend others DO NOT buy this card at IPO.

Craig Wilson (2,500 @ $3.75)Craig Wilson 2004 eTopps

eTopps went 140 miles down the road from the National Convention site to add the Pittsburgh Pirates' Craig Wilson to this week's otherwise Cleveland Indians only IPOs. Wilson may be the strongest player of the bunch, with 18 home runs and a .290 batting average. Further, while starting most often in right field, he has also played first base, left field, and designated hitter, and has even caught 4 games. eTopps again set season performance bonus levels to match his current performance so that he is on pace in all categories, but he would be setting career highs (in his fourth season) in all categories if he achieves them. I recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO.

Jody Gerut (2,500 @ $3.75)Jody Gerut 2004 eTopps

Jody Gerut is in his second season playing outfield for the Indians. He is a strong, aggressive fielder with modest power and speed. He led the Indians with 22 home runs in 2002 as a rookie. Flip a coin to decide if you think he will make his performance bonus; if he performs the same statistically in the second half as he did in the first half of the season, he will just make each performance bonus category. Hopefully local attendees at the National Convention will buy this and the other Indians cards to become addicted to the unique pleasures of eTopps. However, for existing members I recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO.

Ryan Ludwick (2,500 @ $3.75)Ryan Ludwick 2004 eTopps

Ryan Ludwick was assigned to the Indians' AAA minor league team in Buffalo after returning from the 15 day disabled list on July 6. Ludwick's breakthrough in the major leagues has been sidetracked by injuries, with a hip injury in 2002 and a season-ending knee injury in 2003. But he is still projected to be a starting major league outfield, likely coming back up to the Indians later in July or August. His major league potential is uncertain since he has not had a healthy extended period in the majors, but he has 8 home runs in 70 major league games over three seasons. He could increase his power as he gains major league experience. His performance bonus levels are modest, but a gamble given the limited experience. I recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO.

Travis Hafner (2,500 @ $3.75)Travis Hafner 2004 eTopps

Another of the Indians' youth movement, 27-year-old Travis Hafner has joined Victor Martinez among the most pleasant offensive surprises so far for the Indians. Hafner is in his third season, serving as the Indians' primary designated hitter and occasional first baseman. His defensive skills at first base are adequate, but scouting reports indicate he would need to improve his ability to scoop difficult throws to play the position well. He is hitting a strong .331 batting average and ties Martinez for the Indians' home run lead with 17. Despite modest speed, he hit for the cycle against the Twins last year. I recommend DO NOT buy this card at IPO unless you strongly believe in the Indians' youthful redevelopment.

This week's best buy is, well, a stretch. Even at the bargain prices, I cannot strongly recommend buying any of the cards. I will be buying one Craig Wilson or Jody Gerut to bump my 2004 baseball IPO spending up to the next $25 interval so that I can earn an extra reward point (it is worth $3.75 for me to get a card and another reward point). Check your total spending on this set and perhaps increase your planned purchases of this week's IPOs if you, too, are on the margin of getting another bonus point.

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