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This week's IPOs led me to reflect on eTopps' version of subsets: team cards, eVents, and classics. First, this week represents the penultimate release of the team card subsets since after next week all 30 teams will have been released at IPO. The team card series has been a surprising success, and a shrewd business move for eTopps, which so far sold about 65,000 cards and made about $400,000 in revenues. Despite concerns among participants that the cards will be of low value following the season when their reward potential has been exhausted, as of May 25 the 11 highest valued cards in the 2004 baseball set are team cards (some benefiting from the chance to earn a May bonus point). Further, the lowest valued team cards are just below $6.00 in their 7-day average price whereas the highest valued 2004 baseball player card is less than $8.00. Clearly, with the set as a whole hovering just above the IPO price, the team card values are holding up the set's price with most other cards below the IPO price. While there will likely be dynamic price shifts on the team cards in the coming months as teams approach and fade from monthly and season targets, there should be gradual erosion in the prices as the number of months of possible performance bonus points fall. Team cards worth $3 or $4 likely will start showing up in a few months when season targets become unreachable, and then prices of $2 or $3 when the season is over. Nonetheless, the team cards have both served eTopps' interests by increasing revenues and participants' interests by adding value and interest in the 2004 set.
With the success of the team cards, I am surprised by eTopps' neglect of the eVent series. Last week saw one of the rarest events in baseball-a perfect game by Randy Johnson. Occurring only 17 times since 1880 (including twice in 1880 itself!), Johnson joins five hall-of-famers (Cy Young, Addie Joss, Jim Bunning, Sandy Koufax, and Catfish Hunter) that have pitched perfect games. Clearly, if any single event deserves recognition in an eVent series, Johnson's perfect game deserves it, but eTopps appears not to plan to issue one. Perhaps the low prices for many of the eVent cards have made eTopps abandon this series, with some of the cards in the series being priced below $2. But that is largely due to the overproduction of these cards, with several having 5,000 cards issued. Overproduction is a self-correcting phenomenon in eTopps, though, as fewer cards are ordered if higher produced cards fall below IPO prices. See, for example, the Delgado 4 home run card in comparison to the Green and Cameron 4 home run cards, or the baseball classics cards issued in 2003 compared to those issued in 2002. A Johnson perfect game card would likely have sold more than Delgado, but less than the overproduced eVent cards and would have continued a set of interest to baseball fans that appreciate recognizing historic moments. Perhaps licensing issues or other unknown factors limited eTopps ability to produce this card, but I for one am severely disappointed that eTopps failed to produce this card and feel its absence, if not signaling the demise of the eVents set, at least devalues the existing set.
As the team card series winds down and the eVent series appears to be moribund, baseball fans can look forward to the return of baseball classics in the coming weeks. What 20 additional baseball heroes will complete this series? Will the integrity of the series be maintained by including the same design (including the medallion on the back) given the changes in design for other baseball cards in 2004? With falling secondary market prices and lower IPO prices for 2004 baseball, will people still be willing to pay the steep price of $12.50 per card? Will the 2004 subseries perform more like the 2002 subseries that now appears overproduced, or the 2003 series that was produced at a level that still seems very collectible? Such questions are the joy of eTopps.
On to this week's IPOs:
Perfection. My son gets tired of me as at every major or minor league game, usually in the first or second inning, I say "there goes the perfect game" after the first batter gets a hit or walk. Sometimes at the same time, or a few batters later, I say "there goes the no-hitter." Then, finally, "there goes the shutout." Every game has the potential for the pitcher to put every batter out, in order, without reaching base, without having the fielders bobble a ball. But of the approximately 200,000 major league baseball games played since 1900, only 15 have resulted in perfect games. Now Johnson has this rarity to add to a career with 5 Cy Young awards (including one in each league), a World Series co-MVP, and 235 wins. He is also less than 50 strikeouts away from 4,000 strikeouts (perhaps another shot for eTopps to redeem itself with an eVent card?). eTopps likely timed the release of this card to coincide with the interest in Johnson's perfect game, and without a competing eVent card this card may sell more than if issued earlier in the season. His performance bonus levels would have been met in 2001 and 2002 before his knee injury limited his performance in 2003, but the 2.44 ERA will be difficult for him to attain in 2004. With three other Johnson eTopps cards already existing, and the 2003 card with 1,117 cards issued likely to remain the shortest print for Johnson, I recommend DO NOT BUY this card at IPO-but give me an eVent card!
For Orioles fans, the addition of Miguel Tejada (preceding the additions of Javy Lopez and Rafael Palmeiro) signaled a new optimism for a team that has been disappointing for several years. The 2002 AL MVP, Tejada joined the shortstop-rich American League Eastern Division, but may not be enough to shake the Orioles out of their habitual fourth place finishes yet. In 2004, he has started with a strong batting average and is in the top 10 in the American League in RBIs, helping add punch to the Orioles lineup. But, while Orioles fans likely also welcome this IPO in joining the scarce Orioles eTopps cards (only four other players issued in Orioles uniform in all four years of eTopps baseball IPOs), it is hard to see how this card can maintain the high IPO price of $6.50 for a third-year card. His prior two eTopps cards, with 2,630 issued in 2003 and 4,000 in 2004, are both below $3.00 in 7-day average. He is currently short of the pace for home runs and stolen bases for a performance bonus. While the $6.50 IPO price should dampen the number of IPO orders compared to the $4.50 IPO price I would have expected, the new team uniform and the relatively high print runs for 2003 baseball overall are unlikely to allow this card to fall to a print run low enough to hold the IPO price. For O's fans only. Otherwise, I recommend DO NOT BUY this at IPO.
After much criticism for poor timing in when eTopps chose to release its IPOs, eTopps seems to have improved in 2004. In addition to releasing Johnson shortly after his perfect game and Victor Martinez shortly after being named co-player of the week, eTopps issued Zach Greinke the day after he pitched for the Royals in his major league debut. While this may just have been coincidence, hopefully it shows that eTopps is capitalizing on its unique ability with direct marketing to purchasers through the internet to deliver time-sensitive offerings. In his debut, Greinke pitched five solid innings for a no decision, yielding a 2-run home run. Given the team's dismal start so far (see Royals team card IPO discussion below), Royals fans need a bright spot from their top-ranked prospect. Scouts describe him as having "pinpoint control" and a variety of pitches, from a mid-90s fastball to sliders, change-ups, and several variations of curveballs. Only 20 years old, Greinke may be coming up a bit early and likely will need some time to adjust to major league pitchers, but has the potential to be a solid major league pitcher. With this set having few sure-bet rookies, Greinke is one of several solid rookies who may either prove outstanding or disappointing in a few years. I recommend this as a WEAK BUY at IPO.
Martinez, in his third MLB season but first as a starting catcher for the Indians, has emerged as one of the top offensive catchers in 2004. He earned co-player of the week honors on May 17, is in the top 10 in the AL in RBIs, and has 8 home runs to date. If it were not for the requirement to steal 2 bases, he would be a threat for the performance bonus categories. He is still developing defensively as catcher (he is a converted shortstop), playing adequate defense but earning the starting position due to his offense. This is Martinez's first eTopps card, and his 2004 performance will make him attractive for fantasy games requiring catchers. But with other strong offensive catchers already in the American League (such as Jorge Posada and Javy Lopez) and the anticipated emergence of the Twins' Joe Mauer when he returns from the disabled list, Victor Martinez will need to continue a very high level of play to break in among the top catchers. I recommend this as a WEAK BUY at IPO.
The Phillies' catcher is in his eleventh major league season, earning his first eTopps card. Lieberthal is the longest serving Phillies player, but has not yet returned to the peak he had in 1999 when he hit 31 home runs and batted .300. He started 2004 with a bang, literally, as he opened the new Phillies stadium with a three-run game-winning home run. But he is suffering with a .239 batting average to date. Having stolen only 7 bases in his career, and none since 2000, the 1 stolen base required to earn a performance bonus may just prove to be 1 too high. I recommend DO NOT BUY this card at IPO.
The Angels, having bolstered their lineup with Vladimir Guerrero and Bartolo Colon in the offseason, are leading the American League West as they attempt to return to their 2002 championship success following a disappointing 2003 season. As of May 25, they hold the best record in the major leagues with 29 wins and 16 losses. Their hope may be hindered by injuries to Troy Glaus and Garret Anderson, though. If the Angels win 16 games in June or 94 games in the season, purchasers will earn bonus points. Both targets seem attainable with their current pace (they are on pace to win 107 games), but the injuries and long season make it likely that they will not continue the current torrid pace. I recommend BUY THIS CARD at IPO.
While the Angels have the best record in the majors to date, the Royals have the worst at 13 wins and 28 losses. This may have led eTopps to lower the IPO price to $5.75 instead of $6.50 and to set low performance bonus thresholds of 11 wins in June and 67 wins for the season. But even this 67 win, 95 (!) loss threshold is above the Royals current pace, which would yield only 51 wins. The Royals have already called up their top prospect, Zach Greinke, and may further aim for developing future players at the expense of winning in 2004. The Royals may reach modest monthly win totals, but the long-term future of this card seems poor. I recommend DO NOT BUY THIS CARD at IPO.
Cincinnati has at least temporarily taken the top place in the highly competitive National League Central as of May 25, but will have to hold off the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros to retain the lead. Even the last-place Pittsburgh Pirates are only 5 games out of first place, making this the tightest division in the majors. Hopefully the Reds can add to the dramatic tension that the three-way race between the Cubs, Astros, and Cardinals produced last year. Even if the Reds fade into the middle of the division, the performance bonus levels seem modest, with 13 wins required for June and 80 for the season. So far, they have a 26 win and 18 loss record and are on pace to win 94 games, making it very reasonable to expect that the Reds can finish with at least a .500 record, so I recommend BUY THIS CARD at IPO.
In closing, I think this week's best buy is the Reds team card (lower price, more modest bonus levels than the Angels card). For the few of you who have read this far, let me offer a contest for anyone who can answer a question (providing evidentiary support) that I could not answer as preparing this column. In trying to describe the rarity of a perfect game, I wanted a good statistic on how many major league baseball games have ever been played (or at least since 1900). I could not readily find this on the internet, but it must exist! I did a crude estimate of 200,000 based on the number of games per year (each team plays 162 games, with 30 teams, so there are about 162 X 15 = 2,430 games per year) times about 100 years. I then rounded way down since there are fewer games since seasons used to have fewer than 162 games and there used to be fewer teams (and relatively few games lost to rainouts and strikes). I will offer a 2002 Randy Johnson eTopps card as a reward to the first person posting on the eTopps baseball message boards (create your own topic with an obvious heading since this is only advertised in this article) who can provide a strong estimate or count of the total number of major league baseball games played ever or since 1900. To win, you must either provide a link to a publicly available web page (needs to be relatively current, or provide an estimated update) with this information or document a more precise calculation (I'll use my judgment in how compellingly precise the calculation is, and again links to supporting data on the internet may be helpful). Good luck, and as always I will also appreciate any feedback on how to improve these articles in the future!
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