In Washington, D.C., it is hot and humid enough to be mid-July rather than mid-May, making it easy to forget that baseball is still early in the season (less than one-fifth of the season has passed). The length of the baseball season, about 10 times as many games as a football season and twice as many as in basketball, means that championship-contending teams and all-star players must sustain high levels of play for long periods. One short hot streak will not make a team's playoff hopes or a player's MVP stats; teams and players will have to maintain consistent excellence, enjoy hot streaks, and overcome slumps to achieve baseball's highest levels.

Similarly, the eTopps baseball set has the longest IPO period of the eTopps sports, and in week 7 we have to remind ourselves that less than half of the 2004 set has been issued. So much has already happened, including multiple rounds of the new fantasy games, dynamic price movement among team cards that contended for their April win targets, excitement of a new set with new features (at least excitement with the lower prices and increased gaming component, if not with the higher print runs and the redesigned card images), and technical problems with eBay transactions and card allocations. But with half to two-thirds of the set still to be issued and most of the season left, there will be plenty more excitement and frustration to keep our interest in this set, including five more months of teams contending for monthly win bonuses and players flirting with their performance bonus levels, likely new short prints, rookies establishing themselves, perhaps an event card or two, the final series of baseball classics, and the excitement of the National and eCon2 for many in the eTopps community. Despite the heat in D.C. and many places in the country, the summer has not yet begun!

On to this week's IPOs:

Carlos Beltran (2,500 @ $5.75)

Carlos Beltran has established himself as an all-star outfielder, and his fast start in 2004 will further bolster his all-star status as well as his value in the free agent class following the season. The Royals' center fielder is currently on pace to exceed all of his eTopps performance bonus levels, though it remains early in the season so if he cools off to his career levels he would likely fall short of these levels. He has power (8 homeruns as of May 10), speed (9 stolen bases to date), and a good batting average (.310 to date), making him valuable for many eTopps fantasy games. This is Beltran's second eTopps card, one of the rare players who was in the 2001 set but has not reemerged in eTopps until 2004. Due to its scarcity, the 2001 card does not give much sense of what price the 2004 card will settle at, since there were only 489 of the 2001 issued and a recent 7-day average of about $83.00. But the 2004 card's value will be enhanced because it will be the primary card available for including Beltran in eTopps fantasy games. Thus, I recommend BUY this card at IPO as the affordable alternative of an all-star caliber player.

Lyle Overbay (3,750 @ $5.75)

Lyle Overbay, picked up by the Brewers in trade with the Diamondbacks for Richie Sexson, gains his first eTopps card in what will likely be his first full season. After playing 86 games in 2003 and a few major league games in earlier seasons, Overbay is emerging as a strong replacement for Sexson at first base. He already is among the league leaders in batting average, and was named N.L. player of the week May 10. His performance bonus levels appear to be readily achievable for batting average, home runs, and RBIs, but 2 stolen bases will be iffy (he has 1 stolen base in his major league career to date), and the .386 level for on-base average will also be difficult. But Overbay appears to be a solid player, so I recommend BUY this card at IPO to pick up the first card of a young player.

Albert Pujols (3,750 @ $5.00)

If not for Barry Bonds, Albert Pujols would likely be a two-time Most Valuable Player. Finishing second to Bonds in 2002 and 2003, Pujols did earn N.L. Rookie of the Year in 2001. While Pujols' batting average is a bit off his usual pace so far in 2004, he has shown that he can quickly raise his average, and his power (9 home runs as of May 10) is on pace for 46 home runs for the season. He will chase all of his performance bonus thresholds, though will need to pick up the pace to meet these thresholds for a bonus point. Pujols remains a key for many fantasy teams, and it would be cheaper to purchase a 2004 card at IPO that to buy any of his three earlier cards from eBay, even the overproduced (5,531 cards) 2002 card which had a recent 7-day average of about $6.00. While he has more than 13,000 eTopps cards already across the three years and will likely have more than 16,000 after the 2004 cards are issued, Pujols' fantasy value and his potential for a long, hall of fame career makes this a recommended card to BUY at IPO.

Andy Pettitte (2,500 @ $4.50)

The Yankees' loss is the Astros' gain as Pettitte was one of the key components of the Yankees' starting rotation (and helped the Astros attract Roger Clemens as one of the other key components). To some surprise, both Pettitte and Clemens have started their Astros' careers strongly, with Pettitte having an early 3 win, 1 loss record and a respectable 3.22 ERA. Pettitte is on pace to meet his performance bonus levels with the exception of strikeouts, and WHIP may also be a challenge. His 2003 eTopps card sold 2,367 cards, and has a recent 7-day average slightly above $3.00. The 2004 card likely will sell within a few hundred cards of that level, so I find it hard to expect that it will rise above the $4.50 IPO price. Thus, I recommend DON'T BUY this card at IPO.

Javier Vazquez (3,750 @ $4.50)

Javier Vazquez made an abrupt change from major league baseball's most obscure team (the Montreal Expos, who are regularly outdrawn in attendance by popular minor league teams) to its most intensely watched (the New York Yankees). While that change may unnerve many young pitchers, Vazquez has had a strong start in the revamped Yankees' starting rotation. For example, with 3 wins and 3 losses as of May 10, Vazquez has outperformed erstwhile Yankee ace Mike Mussina. The 3 losses at this early stage, though, may make the 12 loss maximum for earning a performance bonus risky. Vazquez's other eTopps card was in 2002, when 3000 were issued with a recent 7-day average price of just above $4.00. Likely a similar number of cards will be issued in 2004, so the $4.50 IPO price (given his increased prominence on the Yankees) may be about right. Yankees fans should therefore buy this card at IPO, but otherwise I would more likely spend my money on some of the other recommended IPOs. Thus, in this week's closest decision, I recommend DON'T BUY this card at IPO.

Houston Astros Team Card (2,500 @ $6.50)

The Houston Astros, bolstered by strong initial starts by the former Yankees tandem of Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens, have jumped off to a 20 win, 11 loss start and lead the N.L. Central by 2 games as of May 10. That puts them on an early pace of winning 104 games; while they are likely to cool off during the long season, that is a pace well ahead of the 91 game threshold eTopps set for a performance bonus. They can also get a reward point if they win at least 15 of their 27 games in June, with eight games against their division rival Chicago Cubs. With their fast start, the Astros may make a run at some performance bonus points, so I recommend BUY this card at IPO.

Arizona Diamondbacks Team Card (2,500 @ $6.50)

Arizona is off to a disappointing start, with a 12 win, 18 loss record as of May 10, 2004. Having just been swept by the Phillies, who until then had also had a subpar start, the Diamondbacks also lead the N.L. in errors. The Diamondbacks countered the disappointment of losing Curt Schilling from their pitching rotation by signing slugger Richie Sexson from the Brewers, but Sexson has had an early season visit to the disabled list with a shoulder injury. The Diamondbacks would need to win 78 games in 2004 to get a performance bonus point, a target that would have seemed likely at the beginning of the season and will only require the Diamondbacks to play .500 ball for the remainder of the season. The Diamondbacks also have a modest 13 game win threshold for June to earn a bonus point. The slow start may be disappointing, but has led eTopps to provide realistic bonus levels that are attainable if Sexson returns and the Diamondbacks can win as many as they lose in June and the remainder of the season. I think they will at least get close enough that the card's price will rise above IPO at points, so I recommend that you BUY this card at IPO.

Philadelphia Phillies Team Card (2,500 @ $6.50)

While expectations were high for the Phillies at the beginning of the season, the strong start by the Marlins accompanied by a poor start by the Phillies has dampened these hopes and even threats that manager Larry Bowa's job could be at risk. The recent sweep of the Diamondbacks has put the Phillies above the .500 mark for the first time, but they will need to continue this improvement to show potential for winning the division. ETopps maintained a relatively high season win level for reward points (91 wins), while their current pace would suggest only 84 wins. They would also need to win 15 of their 28 games in June for a performance bonus point. While the season is young, the disappointment so far for the Phillies makes me recommend that you DO NOT BUY this card at IPO.

In closing, I think this week's best buy is the Houston Astros team card. Beltran and Pujols will also be attractive, low priced options for fantasy players. Despite the recent technological glitches in eTopps trading and IPO releases and the recent decline in secondary prices, the eTopps market is maturing with lots of avenues for collectors, gamers, and investors to pursue. Enjoy this hobby and its many facets, especially its strong community of fellow hobbyists, during the long baseball season ahead!