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As "Let's play ball!" is heard again through major league stadiums, 2004 eTopps baseball emerges with some dramatic changes. With apologies to Bob Dylan, his classic from forty years ago rings in my ears:
Come gather 'round eToppers
Wherever you roam
And admit that the ports
Around you have grown
And accept it that soon
You'll be back in the green.
If your port to you
Is worth savin'
Then you better keep buyin'
Or it'll sink like a stone
For eTopps. they are a'changin'.
Come collectors and investors
Who prophesize about IPOs
And keep your eyes wide
The IPOs won't be issued again
And don't sell too soon
For the index is still in spin
And there's no tellin' where
The SDA is aimin'.
For the loser now
Will later be to win
For eTopps, they are a'changin'.
Come sisters and brothers
Throughout cardboard land
And don't criticize
What you don't understand.
Your eTopps friends
Are getting what they command.
Your old cards are
rapidly agin'.
Please come join us in the new one
If you can't sell for Beckett
For eTopps, they are a-changin'.
The design has been redrawn,
The games are cast.
The low ones now
Will later rise fast
As the players now
For rosters are amassed.
The short print now,
Will later be best.
For eTopps, they are a'changin.
Okay, enough. On to the week two baseball IPOs...
The Dodgers' closer set a new standard in 2003, winning the N.L. Cy Young award as a reliever, tying the record for total saves in a season (55), and establishing a new record for consecutive saves (64 to date). The consecutive save streak continues at this writing going into the 2004 season, though Gagne is fortunate that All Star games do not count in official records (see Hank Blalock below). Given the career seasons Gagne has had in 2002 and 2003, eTopps sets high performance bonus goals for his 2004 card. If Gagne can maintain his level in 2004, he can achieve these goals (he would have met these goals in 2002 and 2003) but if he slips even modestly he will miss out with having only 5 blown saves to yield. Gagne's first eTopps card in 2003 sold 2,929 cards and has a recent 7-day average of $4.14. If eTopps adds "saves" to any future fantasy games (they are not counted in the initial 2004 fantasy games), Gagne will be a fantasy game "must have," though the 2003 Gagne may be a better value unless they are not eligible for some games. Thus, I rate this card as a WEAK BUY at IPO.
Whereas Gagne was the 2003 All-Star Game goat, the Rangers' Blalock was one of the game's heros with a game-winning home run. Enjoying his first full major-league season in 2003 at third-base, Blalock hit 29 homers and maintained a .300 batting average. While he will likely mature in 2004 and should hit eTopps' performance goals for home runs and batting average if he remains healthy, the goal for stolen bases (4) will be a stretch as he had only 2 stolen bases in 2003. (Those low stolen base performance bonus levels are so deceptive for many players with limited speed.) Blalock's 2003 rookie eTopps card had a print run of 5,000 and has a recent 7-day average of $8.66. The $4.50 price is attractive even though I think Blalock will fall just short of his performance bonus and there are more attractive third-basemen (including a certain former Rangers teammate) for most fantasy categories. Thus, I rate this card as a WEAK BUY at IPO.
Matsui returns from being the returning hero as the Yankees opened the season in Japan, and with a year of adjustment to U.S. major league baseball under his belt may continue to further impress and improve in his second MLB season. He also earns his second eTopps card, with his "rookie" 2003 eTopps selling an impressive 8000 cards and having a recent SDA of $7.91. The 2004 is guaranteed a maximum print run of less than one-third of the 2003 card, and while it may not be his rookie card I believe that fact alone and the potential for Matsui to improve on his 2003 statistics will help this card maintain the IPO price. But Matsui will need to show modest improvement in all categories over his 2003 season to meet the 2004 eTopps performance bonus. Because of the significantly smaller print run in 2004, I rate this card a BUY at IPO.
Jason Varitek, the Red Sox catcher, earns his first eTopps card and will help round out the availability of catchers with offensive statistics that could help in eTopps fantasy games. With a career high 25 home runs and 85 RBIs, Varitek ranked second in 2003 in both categories among major league catchers, following only the Yankees Jorge Posada. With another anticipated duel between the Red Sox and Yankees in the AL East in 2004, the Varitek/Posada competition will be important for both team's chances and may also fuel many eTopps' fantasy competitions. With a reasonable $5.25 IPO price, I rate this card a BUY at IPO because of its fantasy value as well as being the first card of an All-Star player.
While the question remains as to how long Piazza remains as catcher or is shifted to first base, it is striking that eTopps is issuing two catcher cards so early in the IPO season. Perhaps eTopps anticipates needing to stock a mix of players in each position with 2004 cards for new members, or will start increasing requirements in the fantasy games for holding 2004 cards. Regardless of Piazza's proven value as a fantasy player (especially if he qualifies as a catcher), his 2004 card will be the fourth eTopps card. Further, his 2001 and 2003 cards had 1,329 and 1,355 cards issued respectively, so it is unlikely the 2004 card will have a notably lower print run than his earlier cards. The 2002 Piazza card had more than 4,200 issued, and had a recent seven day average of $3.81, while the 2003 card had a recent seven day average of $7.22. I would anticipate the 2004 card to fall in between these cards in price and print run. For fantasy bargain hunters, I would pick up the 2002 card, whereas for those looking for a single Piazza card for their collection, I would pick up the 2003 card; it is hard to see where the 2004 card will be attractive other than for set collectors and Piazza fanatics. DON'T BUY this card at IPO.
The team cards present an interesting challenge for IPO purchasers. While they will be attractive for individuals either collecting entire sets or who are fans of particular teams (I picked up my Twins card last week and look forward to the Orioles when they are issued, regardless of whether they are recommended purchases), most purchasers will evaluate how likely the cards will be to earn monthly, season, playoff, or World Series rewards points. And unfortunately, eTopps provides incomplete information on this as the monthly thresholds required for the performance bonus are unknown at the time of IPO purchase.
For the Braves card to earn a season reward point, eTopps set a threshold of 88 wins. While the Braves had significant losses in key players during the offseason (including Gary Sheffield, Javy Lopez, and Greg Maddux) and will have trouble beating the Phillies in the NL East, they may come close to the 88-win level for a performance bonus and have a reasonable chance of being the NL wild card team. In fact, ESPN.com recently released annual projected standings for 2004 as simulated by the Diamond Mind baseball computer game (see http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2004/news/story?id=1774245). After 100 simulations of the forthcoming season, the Braves won an average of 86 games, closer to the eTopps threshold than any of this week's IPOs, and won their division or the wild card 38 out of 100 times. Adding in the potential for some yet undefined monthly performance points, the Braves may make a run for some reward points. Thus, I give this card a WEAK BUY at IPO.
The Dodgers have a new General Manager, Paul DePodesta, who is respected for his ability to find valuable players with his statistical insights after having been Billy Beane's right-hand man for the "Moneyball" Oakland A's. But the loss of Kevin Brown and Paul Quantrill will challenge the Dodger's pitching Staff, and the improvement of other teams in the division will make the Dodgers have trouble meeting their 2003 record. ETopps set their season threshold for a performance bonus at 85 games, a full 8 games higher than the simulations by ESPN's Diamond Mind simulation. If the monthly thresholds are comparably as high, Dodgers fans may be disappointed on the return on investment for this team card. My recommendation is DON'T BUY this card at IPO.
Fans of the defending World Series champions must have been concerned about a repeat of their last World Series championship when the team was dismantled during the off season. While the Marlins had a few key losses (most notably catcher Ivan Rodriguez) they retained many of their young stars. The key will in large part be whether the maturation of Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, and Josh Beckett will continue or if they will settle down after their early glories. ETopps set the Marlins win total for a performance bonus at 83 games, but that is 5 more than projected by ESPN's Diamond Mind simulations and they are given slim chances in these simulations of winning the wild card. While there are a lot of variables on this team (no one would have predicted their 2003 success before that season), I think the Marlins are too risky for earning many rewards points, so this is a DO NOT BUY recommendation from me.
In closing, I think this week's best buy is Jason Varitek's eTopps debut, and for National League fans who did not start enjoying the new team cards the Braves may be the best team bet. But, as always, these are my perspectives so merely use my thoughts as context for evaluating your own IPO decisions. Indeed, "the times, they are a-changin'" in eTopps, and seemingly for the better. While I weighted the new fantasy and team games to some degree in each of my recommendations this week, I personally hope that eTopps uses fantasy games to add value to our collections but not to rely too much on fantasy as I and many others collect eTopps for their unique place among collectibles and do not want them to be merely gaming (almost gambling) pieces. The goal of adding value to people's collections (both in terms of enjoyment and portfolio prices), attracting more members, and making prices more closely aligned with on-field performance are all laudable, though, and I applaud eTopps for a good start at adding fantasy games to the mix of reasons to collect and invest in eTopps cards.
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